Michael Bhaskar is a writer, publisher, researcher, and entrepreneur. He is the co-founder of Canelo, a new kind of publisher and the fastest growing independent publisher in Europe. From 2017 to his 2019, he served as a consultant and writer-in-residence at his DeepMind, his world-leading AI research laboratory. His work has been featured and written in various magazines. guardian, wired, BBC World ServiceNPR, etc.
Mustafa Suleiman is the co-founder and CEO of Inflection AI. Previously, he co-founded DeepMind, one of the world’s leading artificial intelligence companies. After his 10 years at DeepMind, Suleyman became his vice president of AI product management and AI policy at Google.
Below, co-authors Michael and Mustafa share five key insights from their new book. The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Biggest Dilemma of the 21st Century. Listen to the audio version (Read Michael) on the Next Big Idea app.
1. Humanity has been shaped by successive waves of technology.
For thousands of years, humanity has been shaped by successive waves of technology. The discovery of fire, the invention of the wheel, and the use of electricity were all transformative moments for civilization. It all started small with a few shaky experiments and was a wave of technology that eventually spread across the globe. These waves follow similar trajectories. Breakthrough technologies have been invented, provided tremendous value, and become more popular, more effective, cheaper, and more widespread. They were eventually absorbed into the normal, ever-evolving fabric of human life. There are compelling reasons to believe that such proliferation is the default and will be the case again in the future. We are about to cross a critical threshold in human history. This coming wave of technology is poised to cause the most profound transformation in human history.
Built around the versatile technologies of AI and synthetic biology, this wave is truly one of intelligence and life. For example, in just a few years, AI model parameters have grown from hundreds of millions to trillions. This is a central measure of system complexity and size. Chap GPT and GPT4 have taken the world by storm as the fastest-growing consumer technologies in history. AI is advancing faster than even industry experts can track it. And now, this exponential change is extending to biotechnology, robotics, quantum computing, and new energy sources. For example, the cost of DNA sequencing has collapsed. We are also growing in our ability to synthesize it, write the code for life, and create new organic forms. Therefore, understanding and considering this wave is extremely important for all of us.
2. We need better categories to understand new age technologies.
In recent months, as AI has exploded into the national consciousness, most of the discussion has been sucked into one of two poles. On the other hand, AI, basic machine learning, is already present in mobile phones, cars, and ChatGPT. On the other hand, artificial general intelligence, AGI, or even some kind of superintelligence still exists, a putative and uncertain existential threat to humanity that will arrive at some vague point in the future. . They are AI and AGI. completely dominate the discussion. But understanding AI means something in between, something emerging in a near or intermediate time frame whose capabilities will have an immeasurable and tangible impact on the world, is urgent. means that it is necessary.
“These AIs don’t just say things like chat bots. They do things.”
This is what artificial intelligence (ACI) does. It describes what will happen in the next two to five years. These ACIs uniquely accomplish a wide range of preset goals. These AIs don’t just say things like chat bots. they do things. They achieve their goals autonomously. These AIs not only host retirement parties and manage diaries, but also develop and execute business strategies while designing new drugs to fight cancer and dominate entire sectors. . They plan and execute hospitals and break-ins as much as they reply to your emails.
Focusing on AI, AGI, or the lack of ACI is both dangerous and short-sighted. So we proposed a modern Turing test to warn us that AI has entered a new phase. In a test, if an AI can make $1 million on the internet on its own, it’s ACI. To understand the new era of technology, the era of ACI, we need better categories. In this day and age, very little remains the same. You should start preparing for it now.
3. Waves change the nature of forces.
Power is the ability to achieve your goals no matter where you are. Now anyone who wants it, and almost everyone, can have it. This wave is far more powerful than the web ever was. This is what ACI and related technologies such as robotics, quantum computing, and synthetic virology deliver.
The reason it changes power is because everyone has access to it. Think of it this way. In previous eras, the most powerful technologies were generally reserved for a small, capital-rich elite or central government. Building steam-powered factories, aircraft carriers, and nuclear power plants was an expensive, difficult, and enormous endeavor. With the cutting edge technology of our time, that is no longer the case. If the last great technology wave, computers and the Internet, was about broadcasting information, this new wave is about execution.
We are facing a step change in what individuals are capable of, and we are facing it at a pace previously unimaginable. AI becomes more powerful and significantly cheaper each month. What was computationally impossible a few years ago and would cost tens of millions of dollars is now widespread. This means that it is a very powerful extension of our best and worst selves, and it is everywhere. Every incentive you can think of, whether commercial, religious, cultural, military, democratic, or authoritarian, can be dramatically enhanced by having cheap electricity readily available. These tools will be available to everyone, from billionaires to street activists to children in India to pensioners in Beverly Hills. It’s not just the proliferation of technology, but the proliferation of capabilities, of power itself.
4. Dilemma: The political implications of technology are too often ignored.
There are bold and alarming arguments that these technologies critically endanger nation-states. It’s no secret that technologies like AI can give bad actors a new toolkit, fueling the proliferation of misinformation and potentially costing jobs. While they bring immense benefits, they also exacerbate societal vulnerabilities. They may even pose an existential threat to nation-states, pose very serious risks, and have the potential to disrupt or even overturn the current political order. It also paves the way for AI-powered cyberattacks, automated wars that can wipe out countries, or engineered pandemics that throw the world at the mercy of unaccountable yet seemingly omnipotent forces. Masu. Each possibility may be small, but the possible outcomes are huge. Even a small chance of such an outcome requires serious caution.
“Can we strike a balance between openness and closedness?”
When presented with such scenarios, people often develop an innate pessimism, disgust, or so-called disgust, and tend to dismiss such assessments as exaggerated threats. But this is the reality of what’s to come, and when faced with this, it looks like we’ve left him with two undesirable endpoints. On the one hand, the surveillance state eliminates all risks at the expense of freedom and progress. On the other hand, the ultimate catastrophe brought about by runaway development. This is the dilemma at the heart of his 21st century. Can the world find a narrow path between these outcomes? Can it balance openness and closure? This presents an urgent generational challenge on par with the climate crisis. Masu.
5. Containment is an important concept that is missing in our time.
There is currently a lot of discussion around technology and its risks, but what is missing is a central unifying idea. As conversations around technology explode, we still lack a unified approach to understanding, mitigating, and controlling the new forces that create the spiral: a one-size-fits-all concept for a one-size-fits-all revolution. .
We propose containment as the answer. It is a comprehensive lock that integrates cutting-edge engineering, ethical values, government regulations, and international cooperation. In short, containment is an elusive foundation on which to build the future. Managing the waves requires a containment program that operates in 10 concentric layers.
- Built-in technical safety measures and specific measures to ensure safe results
- Audit mechanisms to ensure technology transparency and accountability
- Use choke points in the ecosystem to buy time for regulators and defensive technologies
- Responsible and dedicated makers and critics invest in creating technology that is actually included, not just viewed from the outside.
- Restructuring of corporate incentives and structures away from inadvertent competition
- Government regulation of technology licensing and oversight
- International treaties to new global institutions
- Fostering the right technology culture and valuing the precautionary principle in technology
- Social movements are always part of and instigators of broader change
- Finally, all these measures must be combined into a comprehensive program.
None of this will be easy, but it will pave a narrow path to a secure and prosperous future. Technological innovations that once took centuries or millennia are now happening in years or even months. The results will be broadcast around the world in hours or even seconds. Containment is the response we need.
To hear the audio version read by co-author Michael Bhaskar, download the Next Big Idea app now.
